tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 47 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1326 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 1326 DAL 06:00 → LAX 07:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1329 DAL 20:40 → LAX 21:50 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 1326 Southwest Flight history → DAL 06:00 LAX 07:10 6% 1% 0.7% 93%
DL 439 Delta Flight history → DFW 07:35 LAX 08:45 10% 3% 0.8% 92%
AA 2005 American Flight history → DFW 06:00 LAX 07:13 11% 3% 1.0% 82%
AA 2680 American Flight history → DFW 08:25 SNA 09:33 13% 3% 0.8% 91%
AA 2644 American Flight history → DFW 07:10 SNA 08:18 13% 3% 0.8% 83%
DL 521 Delta Flight history → DFW 13:45 LAX 14:58 13% 3% 0.7% 88%
AA 2238 American Flight history → DFW 08:20 ONT 09:29 15% 3% 0.8% 90%
AA 1154 American Flight history → DFW 07:20 LAX 08:35 16% 4% 1.1% 76%
AA 2672 American Flight history → DFW 09:40 SNA 10:48 17% 4% 0.8% 83%
F9 2273 Frontier Flight history → DFW 07:35 LAX 08:54 17% 4% 0.8% 85%
AA 1996 American Flight history → DFW 08:35 LAX 09:49 17% 4% 0.9% 83%
AA 2684 American Flight history → DFW 12:23 SNA 13:31 18% 4% 0.8% 80%
AA 500 American Flight history → DFW 09:40 LAX 10:52 18% 5% 0.9% 75%
AA 2827 American Flight history → DFW 10:45 LAX 11:57 19% 5% 0.9% 73%
AA 348 American Flight history → DFW 21:16 SNA 22:24 19% 3% 1.0% 74%
AA 2669 American Flight history → DFW 10:53 SNA 12:05 20% 5% 0.7% 61%
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history → DFW 07:31 ONT 08:37 20% 5% 0.8% 79%
WN 4076 Southwest Flight history → DAL 11:55 BUR 13:05 20% 6% 0.8% 71%
AA 2041 American Flight history → DFW 11:41 LAX 12:53 21% 5% 0.8% 76%
AA 1617 American Flight history → DFW 10:56 BUR 12:05 21% 7% 1.2% 71%
AA 806 American Flight history → DFW 19:15 SNA 20:22 22% 4% 1.0% 68%
AA 2668 American Flight history → DFW 16:24 SNA 17:37 22% 5% 0.8% 71%
DL 948 Delta Flight history → DFW 20:35 LAX 21:50 22% 5% 0.8% 86%
AA 2242 American Flight history → DFW 10:40 ONT 11:45 22% 5% 0.8% 76%
AA 2688 American Flight history → DFW 14:30 SNA 15:36 23% 6% 0.8% 61%
WN 1327 Southwest Flight history → DAL 11:10 LAX 12:20 23% 4% 0.6% 58%
AA 3334 American Flight history → DFW 13:11 LAX 14:20 23% 5% 0.9% 75%
WN 1375 Southwest Flight history → DAL 14:25 ONT 15:25 24% 6% 0.6% 61%
AA 2239 American Flight history → DFW 12:20 ONT 13:22 24% 7% 0.8% 58%
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history → DFW 16:08 LAX 17:30 25% 9% 0.8% 76%
AA 2732 American Flight history → DFW 15:30 LAX 16:39 28% 9% 0.9% 45%
AA 966 American Flight history → DFW 16:30 LAX 17:45 28% 9% 0.9% 67%
F9 3325 Frontier Flight history → DFW 13:35 SNA 14:47 29% 8% 0.8% 68%
WN 1336 Southwest Flight history → DAL 18:30 LGB 19:35 29% 8% 0.6% 42%
AA 2236 American Flight history → DFW 18:50 ONT 19:59 30% 9% 0.9% 62%
AA 711 American Flight history → DFW 21:27 ONT 22:32 31% 9% 0.8% 53%
AA 1972 American Flight history → DFW 17:30 LAX 18:44 31% 9% 0.9% 53%
AA 1534 American Flight history → DFW 22:52 ONT 23:59 33% 9% 0.8% 39%
WN 4300 Southwest Flight history → DAL 16:25 SNA 17:30 33% 5% 0.6% 76%
AA 1504 American Flight history → DFW 22:31 LAX 23:45 34% 7% 0.9% 61%
AA 2766 American Flight history → DFW 18:30 LAX 19:45 34% 9% 0.9% 56%
AA 3287 American Flight history → DFW 21:36 LAX 22:49 35% 8% 1.0% 43%
WN 3161 Southwest Flight history → DAL 15:30 LAX 16:40 35% 7% 0.6% 45%
AA 1084 American Flight history → DFW 20:49 LAX 22:03 36% 8% 0.9% 44%
AA 2597 American Flight history → DFW 20:46 BUR 21:58 36% 11% 1.2% 63%
WN 1330 Southwest Flight history → DAL 22:55 LAX 00:10 43% 10% 0.6% 55%
WN 1329 Southwest Flight history → DAL 20:40 LAX 21:50 46% 10% 0.6% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON