Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5234 DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 5158 DAY 17:51 → CLT 19:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5234 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 06:31	CLT 08:20	7%	2%	1.1%	89%
AA 5242 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 08:30	CLT 10:19	9%	4%	1.0%	89%
AA 5490 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 14:14	CLT 16:01	13%	4%	0.9%	75%
AA 5158 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 17:51	CLT 19:40	17%	7%	0.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON