Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5261 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 5261 DAY 06:00 → DCA 07:39 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 5162 DAY 17:40 → DCA 19:15 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5261 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 06:00	DCA 07:39	11%	5%	1.7%	85%
AA 5159 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 09:34	DCA 11:10	18%	7%	2.0%	87%
AA 5162 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 17:40	DCA 19:15	35%	14%	1.8%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON