tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1235 at 09:01, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1235 United Flight history → DAY 09:01 DEN 10:04 8% 3% 0.6% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Dayton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet 1h 10m Chicago ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 5h 15m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → DAY 06:00 → ATL 07:40DL 3140 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 7h 05m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → DAY 05:50 → PHL 07:33AA 5587 · flown by PSA 2h 02m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → DEN 11:56AA 3312 8h 06m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → DAY 10:23 → IAD 11:53UA 4181 · flown by GoJet 2h 42m Dulles IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 8h 06m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5234 · flown by PSA 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → DEN 12:56AA 1758 8h 25m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → DAY 14:53 → IAD 16:30UA 4824 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 50m Dulles IAD 19:20 → DEN 21:27UA 2667 8h 34m 93% 80%
UnitedDetails → DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet 2h 59m Chicago ORD 10:54 → DEN 12:45UA 581 7h 30m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA 3h 13m Charlotte CLT 13:32 → DEN 15:03AA 1735 8h 33m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DAY 11:39 → ORD 12:05UA 4453 · flown by GoJet 51m Chicago ORD 12:56 → DEN 14:46UA 1150 5h 07m 71% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON