Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5157 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 5157 DAY 07:09 → DFW 08:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 5156 DAY 18:32 → DFW 20:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5157 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 07:09	DFW 08:50	10%	4%	1.1%	87%
AA 5125 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 08:15	DFW 09:56	13%	5%	1.1%	84%
AA 5163 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 13:34	DFW 15:10	19%	6%	0.9%	79%
AA 5156 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 18:32	DFW 20:11	21%	8%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON