Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3786 at 12:29 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3786 DAY 12:29 → ORD 12:54 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 4747 DAY 14:23 → ORD 14:55 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3786 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DAY 12:29	ORD 12:54	16%	4%	1.6%	96%worse than usual
AA 4974 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DAY 08:49	ORD 09:30	19%	7%	3.0%	83%
AA 5008 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DAY 15:56	ORD 16:31	28%	10%	2.6%	71%
UA 4749 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DAY 18:15	ORD 18:51	29%	9%	2.5%	80%
UA 4747 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DAY 14:23	ORD 14:55	29%	10%	3.0%	66%
UA 4415 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 05:40	ORD 05:55	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
UA 4402 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 07:15	ORD 07:55	17%	9%	2.2%	83%
UA 4453 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 11:39	ORD 12:05	21%	12%	2.3%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON