tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5587 at 05:50, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5587 American flown by PSA Flight history → DAY 05:50 PHL 07:33 8% 4% 1.4% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet 1h 20m Chicago ORD 07:15 → PHL 10:30UA 2038 4h 50m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → DAY 06:00 → ATL 07:40DL 3140 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 4h 57m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5234 · flown by PSA 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498 6h 12m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet 3h 38m Chicago ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182 7h 32m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 15:05 → PHL 17:12DL 1169 5h 49m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573 6h 20m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → DAY 18:38 → ATL 20:29DL 3088 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 21m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → DAY 10:23 → IAD 11:53UA 4181 · flown by GoJet 1h 02m Dulles IAD 12:55 → PHL 14:10UA 3541 · flown by Republic 3h 47m 85% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON