Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4543 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 4543 DCA 08:30 → ACK 10:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 2494 DCA 15:25 → ACK 16:56 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4543 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:30	ACK 10:09	11%	3%	1.2%	84%
AA 4553 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:59	ACK 16:40	14%	5%	1.2%	69%
B6 2494 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 15:25	ACK 16:56	36%	16%	2.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON