Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2347 at 13:20 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2347 DCA 13:20 → ALB 14:42 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 5032 DCA 15:22 → ALB 17:00 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2347 American Flight history →	DCA 13:20	ALB 14:42	19%	6%	0.6%	74%
AA 5029 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:01	ALB 11:33	22%	6%	0.9%	66%
AA 5065 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:15	ALB 23:42	34%	11%	1.1%	56%
AA 5032 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:22	ALB 17:00	36%	11%	1.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON