Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4969 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4969 DCA 06:55 → ATL 08:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5502 DCA 20:01 → ATL 22:03 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4969 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:55	ATL 08:50	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 410 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	ATL 07:41	6%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 330 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:59	ATL 08:53	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 5050 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 06:27	ATL 08:28	13%	4%	1.0%	78%
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	DCA 10:16	ATL 12:06	13%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 3976 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 08:20	ATL 10:27	13%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 455 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:00	ATL 10:50	13%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 343 Delta Flight history →	DCA 08:00	ATL 09:51	14%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	DCA 20:50	ATL 23:00	17%	5%	0.8%	76%
WN 194 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 11:45	ATL 13:35	18%	3%	0.6%	66%
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:27	ATL 14:15	19%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:00	ATL 18:06	21%	5%	0.7%	73%
DL 737 Delta Flight history →	DCA 13:42	ATL 15:33	21%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 950 Delta Flight history →	DCA 19:37	ATL 21:44	22%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:30	ATL 19:36	23%	5%	0.8%	32%
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:30	ATL 20:35	25%	5%	0.7%	68%
WN 4968 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 18:55	ATL 20:50	30%	8%	0.7%	42%
AA 5084 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:20	ATL 16:26	31%	11%	1.0%	32%
AA 5502 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:01	ATL 22:03	34%	13%	1.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON