tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2593 Southwest Flight history → DCA 17:25 AUS 19:50 36% 9% 0.6% 14%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638 3h 19m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 8h 26m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 7h 50m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 15m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 29m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 35m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 5h 59m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 6h 03m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 7h 26m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:06 → JFK 07:29DL 5802 · flown by Republic 3h 41m New York JFK 11:10 → AUS 14:06DL 2323 9h 00m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442 1h 15m Chicago MDW 09:40 → AUS 12:15WN 2727 5h 45m 95% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 13:00 → EWR 14:22UA 4442 · flown by GoJet 48m Newark EWR 15:10 → AUS 18:11UA 2289 6h 11m 55% 41%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978 55m Las Vegas LAS 19:25 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 3569 8h 45m 63% 37%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet 1h 02m Newark EWR 20:30 → AUS 23:29UA 2645 6h 34m 58% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON