Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5052 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:11	AVL 10:51	20%	5%	1.1%	63%
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:28	AVL 19:12	24%	6%	2.1%	48%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → AVL 12:20DL 2181	6h 20m	97%	88%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26AA 365	2h 39m Charlotte	CLT 09:05 → AVL 10:19AA 6030 · flown by Piedmont	5h 19m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → AVL 11:08DL 573	5h 08m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 13m	99%	85%
American Details →	DCA 09:59 → LGA 11:25AA 4491 · flown by Republic	1h 50m New York	LGA 13:15 → AVL 15:27AA 4342 · flown by Republic	5h 28m	98%	84%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	5h 49m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	6h 40m	98%	82%
American Details →	DCA 11:35 → ORD 12:53AA 489	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 15:29 → AVL 18:25AA 3406 · flown by Envoy	6h 50m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet	1h 31m Newark	EWR 20:59 → AVL 23:15UA 4405 · flown by GoJet	5h 20m	72%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON