Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4754 at 10:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 4754 DCA 10:03 → BDL 11:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 5412 DCA 17:26 → BDL 18:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4754 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:03	BDL 11:35	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 5060 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:39	BDL 09:06	10%	5%	0.9%	79%
AA 5059 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:59	BDL 14:27	19%	7%	0.8%	68%
AA 5028 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:32	BDL 23:59	25%	9%	0.9%	45%
AA 5412 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:26	BDL 18:55	33%	11%	0.9%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON