Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5080 at 08:49 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 5080 DCA 08:49 → BHM 10:02 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 5643 DCA 20:00 → BHM 21:13 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5080 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:49	BHM 10:02	17%	7%	0.8%	83%
AA 5078 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:41	BHM 15:56	28%	13%	0.8%	48%
AA 5643 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:00	BHM 21:13	32%	13%	0.8%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON