Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1425 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1425 DCA 06:35 → BNA 07:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 1428 DCA 18:55 → BNA 19:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1425 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:35	BNA 07:25	4%	1%	0.6%	87%
AA 4358 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:59	BNA 08:05	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 5783 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:01	BNA 11:00	10%	2%	0.7%	79%
WN 1426 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 10:35	BNA 11:30	12%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 5707 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:59	BNA 22:02	16%	4%	0.7%	79%
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:04	BNA 10:11	17%	5%	1.0%	64%
DL 5777 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:10	BNA 16:15	17%	3%	0.7%	76%
AA 3991 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 13:54	BNA 14:59	19%	5%	0.8%	77%
WN 1427 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 13:00	BNA 13:50	26%	5%	0.6%	56%
WN 1900 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 16:10	BNA 17:10	26%	6%	0.6%	46%
AA 1163 American Flight history →	DCA 17:46	BNA 18:58	28%	12%	1.0%	61%
AA 5513 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:00	BNA 23:05	29%	11%	1.3%	41%
WN 1428 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 18:55	BNA 19:55	31%	9%	0.7%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON