Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5710 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 5710 DCA 06:00 → BOS 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2954 DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:41 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5710 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:00	BOS 07:45	3%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 1550 American Flight history →	DCA 06:00	BOS 07:39	3%	2%	0.8%	97%
AA 1605 American Flight history →	DCA 06:55	BOS 08:34	4%	2%	0.8%	98%
DL 5698 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:59	BOS 08:41	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 5687 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:29	BOS 10:15	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 4691 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:41	BOS 11:25	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 1556 American Flight history →	DCA 08:32	BOS 10:11	9%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 5611 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:05	BOS 11:48	9%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 5592 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 12:55	BOS 14:40	10%	4%	0.7%	82%
DL 5693 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:47	BOS 13:27	11%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 4380 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 12:59	BOS 14:44	11%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 1582 American Flight history →	DCA 10:25	BOS 11:58	11%	5%	0.7%	77%
B6 554 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 08:44	BOS 10:20	13%	4%	0.8%	88%
DL 5633 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:00	BOS 23:42	14%	5%	0.9%	67%
AA 4382 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:59	BOS 22:40	16%	6%	0.9%	67%
DL 5600 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:15	BOS 17:02	17%	6%	0.8%	61%
AA 2932 American Flight history →	DCA 22:16	BOS 23:59	17%	8%	0.7%	80%
B6 2454 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:00	BOS 12:35	18%	7%	0.7%	82%
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:30	BOS 20:29	19%	8%	0.8%	62%
AA 1557 American Flight history →	DCA 14:59	BOS 16:42	22%	11%	0.7%	59%
DL 5839 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:00	BOS 18:54	24%	8%	0.8%	50%
B6 1254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 13:25	BOS 14:59	26%	14%	0.8%	68%
AA 3207 American Flight history →	DCA 17:00	BOS 18:47	28%	13%	0.7%	43%
B6 1854 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:59	BOS 21:38	31%	18%	0.9%	66%
B6 1354 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 14:25	BOS 16:00	33%	16%	0.7%	49%
B6 2754 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 17:59	BOS 19:41	35%	20%	0.9%	50%
B6 2954 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 17:00	BOS 18:41	36%	19%	0.9%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON