Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5104 at 10:51 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5104 DCA 10:51 → BUF 12:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest OH 5232 DCA 22:30 → BUF 23:52 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5104 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:51	BUF 12:15	20%	5%	1.4%	81%
AA 5106 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:25	BUF 16:55	33%	13%	1.7%	38%
OH 5232 PSA	DCA 22:30	BUF 23:52	33%	14%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON