Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: YX 4544 at 22:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day YX 4544 DCA 22:00 → CAE 23:33 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5108 DCA 17:24 → CAE 19:08 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4544 Republic	DCA 22:00	CAE 23:33	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 5107 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:30	CAE 10:09	17%	5%	1.7%	75%
AA 5108 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:24	CAE 19:08	28%	12%	1.9%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON