tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4541 at 19:59, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4541 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 19:59 CHA 21:57 13% 7% 1.3% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26AA 365 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 07:27 → CHA 08:54AA 6050 · flown by Piedmont 3h 54m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22DL 1737 6h 22m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638 1h 57m Chicago ORD 10:25 → CHA 13:16UA 4543 · flown by GoJet 6h 01m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 14:26 → CHA 15:17DL 3057 5h 01m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141 6h 02m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:18 → CLT 07:57AA 1581 3h 28m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → CHA 12:54AA 6127 · flown by Piedmont 6h 36m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → DCA 13:42 → ATL 15:33DL 737 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 18:40 → CHA 19:33DL 3150 5h 51m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 2h 09m Houston IAH 12:50 → CHA 16:03UA 5091 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 47m Charlotte CLT 20:24 → CHA 21:52AA 5787 · flown by Piedmont 4h 02m 72% 56%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 55m Detroit DTW 20:10 → CHA 22:02DL 4894 · flown by Endeavor 4h 33m 67% 52%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:40 → LGA 18:59DL 5763 · flown by Republic 51m New York LGA 19:50 → CHA 22:22DL 5276 · flown by Endeavor 4h 42m 58% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON