Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4584 at 13:24 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 4584 DCA 13:24 → CHS 15:16 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1278 DCA 20:12 → CHS 21:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4584 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:24	CHS 15:16	16%	3%	1.3%	79%
AA 5659 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:21	CHS 10:15	16%	5%	3.3%	68%
AA 5123 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:51	CHS 13:40	20%	6%	1.7%	70%
AA 1654 American Flight history →	DCA 17:22	CHS 19:11	31%	9%	0.9%	53%
AA 1278 American Flight history →	DCA 20:12	CHS 21:54	33%	9%	1.0%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON