Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3462 at 10:39, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3462 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 10:39	CID 12:10	8%	2%	0.7%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 10:00 → DFW 12:21AA 1618	3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:28 → CID 17:33AA 3461 · flown by Envoy	8h 33m	98%	83%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:34 → CID 11:35AA 2384	7h 35m	99%	79%
American Details →	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:55 → CID 22:03AA 4291 · flown by Envoy	7h 50m	94%	77%
American Details →	DCA 07:43 → ORD 09:00AA 2304	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → CID 11:19AA 3455 · flown by Envoy	4h 36m	88%	77%
United Details →	DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → CID 13:58UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest	6h 33m	99%	77%
American Details →	DCA 13:59 → ORD 15:23AA 2398	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 16:59 → CID 18:20AA 3458 · flown by Envoy	5h 21m	92%	76%
United Details →	DCA 10:30 → ORD 11:48UA 2201	3h 47m Chicago	ORD 15:35 → CID 16:55UA 4781 · flown by SkyWest	7h 25m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 20:56 → CID 22:03DL 2626	7h 03m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 20:06 → ORD 21:42AA 2903	53m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → CID 23:49AA 3326	4h 43m	75%	55%
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	48m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → CID 22:42UA 1923	4h 32m	67%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON