Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4737 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 4737 DCA 06:40 → CLE 08:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 5132 DCA 17:55 → CLE 19:29 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4737 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:40	CLE 08:16	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 5126 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:13	CLE 13:40	25%	6%	0.9%	68%
AA 5470 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:56	CLE 16:34	30%	10%	1.0%	57%
AA 5079 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:30	CLE 23:59	34%	10%	1.1%	43%
AA 5132 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:55	CLE 19:29	37%	11%	1.0%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON