Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 365 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 365 DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 5022 DCA 13:39 → CLT 15:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 365 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	CLT 06:26	5%	2%	0.8%	95%
AA 1581 American Flight history →	DCA 06:18	CLT 07:57	7%	2%	0.8%	89%
AA 1518 American Flight history →	DCA 08:30	CLT 10:13	12%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 1295 American Flight history →	DCA 11:56	CLT 13:35	16%	5%	0.8%	71%
AA 804 American Flight history →	DCA 15:23	CLT 17:10	17%	7%	1.0%	48%
AA 3263 American Flight history →	DCA 19:07	CLT 20:49	21%	7%	0.8%	52%
AA 2182 American Flight history →	DCA 17:50	CLT 19:37	22%	8%	0.8%	71%
AA 5022 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:39	CLT 15:19	26%	9%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON