Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4405 at 10:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4405 DCA 10:06 → CMH 11:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 5197 DCA 22:00 → CMH 23:35 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4405 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:06	CMH 11:40	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 5089 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:30	CMH 09:04	10%	3%	1.0%	93%
AA 4402 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 16:59	CMH 18:36	14%	4%	0.6%	67%
WN 1429 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 11:40	CMH 13:00	19%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 5135 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:39	CMH 16:18	21%	6%	1.1%	68%
AA 5197 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:00	CMH 23:35	23%	7%	1.1%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON