Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5145 DCA 09:00 → CVG 10:42 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 5147 DCA 18:46 → CVG 20:37 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:00	CVG 10:42	19%	5%	0.8%	72%
AA 5199 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:59	CVG 15:48	26%	8%	0.8%	72%
AA 5147 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 18:46	CVG 20:37	28%	10%	0.9%	60%
DL 5229 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 09:13	CVG 10:55	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 5221 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 14:45	CVG 16:22	31%	13%	2.3%	69%
DL 5134 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 19:30	CVG 21:11	35%	19%	3.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON