Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1268 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1268 DCA 06:10 → DAL 08:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 1403 DCA 17:20 → DAL 19:30 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1268 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:10	DAL 08:10	4%	1%	0.7%	89%
WN 1394 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 09:05	DAL 11:10	13%	3%	0.7%	73%
WN 3660 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 14:00	DAL 16:10	25%	5%	0.7%	58%
WN 4377 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 20:35	DAL 22:50	36%	8%	0.7%	38%
WN 1403 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 17:20	DAL 19:30	37%	7%	0.7%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON