Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5159 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Safest bet that day AA 5159 DCA 07:29 → DAY 09:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5473 DCA 19:17 → DAY 21:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5159 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:29	DAY 09:04	9%	4%	0.9%	94%
AA 5162 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:32	DAY 17:10	24%	11%	0.9%	57%
AA 5473 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:17	DAY 21:00	24%	13%	1.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON