Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: F9 685 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day F9 685 DCA 07:00 → DEN 09:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 689 DCA 18:00 → DEN 20:07 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 685 Frontier Flight history →	DCA 07:00	DEN 09:01	12%	4%	0.8%	86%
UA 746 United Flight history →	DCA 16:13	DEN 18:25	17%	6%	0.6%	80%
F9 687 Frontier Flight history →	DCA 13:59	DEN 15:53	23%	8%	0.8%	84%
F9 689 Frontier Flight history →	DCA 18:00	DEN 20:07	24%	9%	0.8%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 47m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	49m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	5h 44m	79%	66%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	46m Minneapolis	MSP 14:27 → DEN 15:30DL 1025	5h 30m	78%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON