Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2243 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2243 DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1158 DCA 19:08 → DFW 21:34 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2243 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	DFW 07:22	4%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 1839 American Flight history →	DCA 06:59	DFW 09:25	5%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 1978 American Flight history →	DCA 07:59	DFW 10:31	7%	3%	0.8%	84%
AA 1618 American Flight history →	DCA 10:00	DFW 12:21	11%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DCA 13:44	DFW 16:11	13%	5%	0.8%	78%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DCA 11:59	DFW 14:23	14%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DCA 15:13	DFW 17:44	14%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DCA 17:11	DFW 19:41	18%	7%	0.9%	65%
AA 1158 American Flight history →	DCA 19:08	DFW 21:34	20%	7%	1.0%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON