tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5292 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 11:59 DSM 13:46 18% 6% 0.8% 76%
AA 3685 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DCA 20:15 DSM 21:57 19% 7% 0.8% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704 5h 45m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094 7h 35m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442 1h 45m Chicago MDW 10:10 → DSM 11:30WN 1771 5h 00m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061 3h 16m Chicago ORD 12:59 → DSM 14:27UA 1781 7h 02m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:43 → ORD 09:00AA 2304 2h 29m Chicago ORD 11:29 → DSM 13:04AA 4676 · flown by Republic 6h 21m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 56m Chicago ORD 08:42 → DSM 10:17UA 1803 4h 47m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → DSM 14:10UA 6166 · flown by Mesa 9h 10m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:18 → CLT 07:57AA 1581 3h 34m Charlotte CLT 11:31 → DSM 12:56AA 1763 7h 38m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 20:06 → ORD 21:42AA 2903 49m Chicago ORD 22:31 → DSM 00:01 +1AA 4442 · flown by Republic 4h 55m 72% 61%
UnitedDetails → DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193 53m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839 4h 46m 73% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON