Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2869 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2869 DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5597 DCA 20:59 → DTW 22:43 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2869 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	DTW 07:29	5%	3%	0.8%	94%
DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:39	DTW 11:09	12%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:23	DTW 14:00	14%	5%	0.8%	87%
AA 5550 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:20	DTW 10:05	16%	6%	1.0%	58%
DL 2030 Delta Flight history →	DCA 19:59	DTW 21:45	23%	7%	0.8%	70%
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DCA 17:29	DTW 19:15	27%	7%	0.8%	64%
AA 5172 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:59	DTW 16:46	28%	9%	1.1%	53%
AA 5597 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:59	DTW 22:43	31%	10%	1.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON