Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5617 at 09:58, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5617 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:58	ECP 11:25	18%	5%	1.4%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	5h 48m	99%	90%
American Details →	DCA 08:23 → ORD 10:00AA 4360 · flown by Republic	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 12:30 → ECP 15:03AA 4534 · flown by Republic	7h 40m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:31DL 1359	6h 32m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	DCA 06:00 → MCI 07:40WN 358	3h 00m Kansas City	MCI 10:40 → ECP 12:45WN 2552	7h 45m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	6h 54m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	6h 56m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	DCA 06:10 → DAL 08:10WN 1268	1h 15m Dallas	DAL 09:25 → ECP 11:20WN 3032	6h 10m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	6h 28m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON