tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4416 at 08:33, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4416 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 08:33 EYW 11:48 20% 3% 2.5% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56AA 1178 1h 59m Miami MIA 09:55 → EYW 10:55AA 3515 · flown by Envoy 5h 55m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472 7h 23m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26AA 365 3h 34m Charlotte CLT 10:00 → EYW 12:14AA 1826 7h 14m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 17:58 → EYW 19:56DL 2815 7h 29m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:02 → MIA 08:50AA 401 3h 20m Miami MIA 12:10 → EYW 13:14AA 3518 · flown by Envoy 7h 12m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638 2h 27m Chicago ORD 10:55 → EYW 15:19UA 3690 · flown by Republic 8h 04m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → EWR 07:19UA 4167 · flown by GoJet 2h 59m Newark EWR 10:18 → EYW 13:30UA 1418 7h 30m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168 7h 07m 99% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON