Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 379 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–46%.

Safest bet that day B6 379 DCA 06:00 → FLL 08:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest B6 1979 DCA 20:55 → FLL 23:30 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 379 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:00	FLL 08:32	10%	4%	1.2%	77%
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:59	FLL 10:40	16%	5%	1.2%	81%
AA 1873 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	FLL 11:01	17%	4%	1.1%	72%
WN 4562 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 14:35	FLL 17:15	33%	10%	1.4%	28%
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 15:10	FLL 17:51	38%	15%	1.9%	61%
B6 1979 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 20:55	FLL 23:30	46%	18%	2.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON