Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5200 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:40	GRR 13:33	23%	7%	1.3%	64%
AA 5376 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:06	GRR 22:03	31%	14%	1.6%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	4h 00m Detroit	DTW 18:00 → GRR 19:01DL 5800 · flown by Republic	6h 38m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547	5h 43m	98%	89%
American Details →	DCA 08:23 → ORD 10:00AA 4360 · flown by Republic	1h 56m Chicago	ORD 11:56 → GRR 14:05AA 3553 · flown by Envoy	5h 42m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → GRR 15:25DL 3865 · flown by SkyWest	7h 40m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 10:15 → GRR 12:05WN 2779	4h 35m	97%	87%
United Details →	DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638	2h 09m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297	5h 35m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	DCA 09:25 → MDW 10:20WN 1444	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 13:15 → GRR 15:05WN 1893	5h 40m	100%	85%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → EWR 07:19UA 4167 · flown by GoJet	1h 41m Newark	EWR 09:00 → GRR 11:12UA 3486 · flown by Republic	5h 12m	96%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet	1h 27m Newark	EWR 19:30 → GRR 21:50UA 3580 · flown by Republic	5h 20m	70%	54%
American Details →	DCA 20:06 → ORD 21:42AA 2903	50m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 +1AA 1096	4h 30m	73%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON