Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4514 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:35	GSO 14:57	15%	4%	0.7%	79%
AA 5252 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:30	GSO 09:54	17%	6%	1.3%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → GSO 11:34DL 3052	5h 34m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:49 → GSO 14:04DL 3060	7h 05m	99%	87%
American Details →	DCA 06:18 → CLT 07:57AA 1581	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 11:12 → GSO 12:17AA 5796 · flown by Piedmont	5h 59m	98%	87%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26AA 365	59m Charlotte	CLT 07:25 → GSO 08:30AA 5793 · flown by Piedmont	3h 30m	95%	86%
American Details →	DCA 07:43 → ORD 09:00AA 2304	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 11:15 → GSO 14:19AA 3744 · flown by Envoy	6h 36m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539	5h 14m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:15 → LGA 09:33DL 5772 · flown by Republic	2h 09m New York	LGA 11:42 → GSO 13:42DL 5862 · flown by Republic	5h 27m	96%	85%
American Details →	DCA 11:35 → ORD 12:53AA 489	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 15:08 → GSO 18:12AA 3932 · flown by Envoy	6h 37m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 18:19 → LGA 19:49AA 4702 · flown by Republic	1h 10m New York	LGA 20:59 → GSO 22:53AA 4577 · flown by Republic	4h 34m	74%	57%
United Details →	DCA 15:10 → EWR 16:32UA 4560 · flown by GoJet	55m Newark	EWR 17:27 → GSO 19:23UA 4509 · flown by GoJet	4h 13m	61%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON