Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5204 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 5204 DCA 10:41 → GSP 12:26 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 5208 DCA 17:02 → GSP 18:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5204 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:41	GSP 12:26	16%	4%	0.9%	78%
AA 5497 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:50	GSP 21:35	28%	11%	1.1%	52%
AA 5208 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:02	GSP 18:50	32%	12%	1.0%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON