Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4515 at 08:39, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4515 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:39	HHH 10:37	9%	3%	0.7%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hilton Head Island on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26AA 365	3h 31m Charlotte	CLT 09:57 → HHH 11:17AA 3563 · flown by Envoy	6h 17m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 14:11 → HHH 15:29DL 5830 · flown by Republic	6h 29m	98%	86%
American Details →	DCA 06:18 → CLT 07:57AA 1581	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → HHH 12:20AA 3582 · flown by Envoy	6h 02m	98%	85%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → EWR 07:19UA 4167 · flown by GoJet	3h 18m Newark	EWR 10:37 → HHH 12:52UA 3676 · flown by Republic	6h 52m	98%	84%
United Details →	DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → HHH 14:21UA 3581 · flown by Republic	7h 06m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:20 → LGA 07:30DL 1172	1h 30m New York	LGA 09:00 → HHH 11:24DL 5618 · flown by Republic	5h 04m	94%	83%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 13:00 → HHH 14:16AA 3562 · flown by Envoy	5h 46m	96%	82%
American Details →	DCA 07:43 → ORD 09:00AA 2304	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → HHH 13:33AA 3862 · flown by Envoy	5h 50m	88%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON