Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1432 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1432 DCA 06:15 → HOU 08:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2730 DCA 18:10 → HOU 20:35 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 26% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1432 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:15	HOU 08:25	6%	2%	1.8%	90%
WN 1433 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 12:35	HOU 14:45	21%	5%	1.2%	47%
WN 2730 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 18:10	HOU 20:35	28%	8%	0.8%	26%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 45m	94%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON