Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3997 DCA 08:20 → HSV 09:26 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 5213 DCA 11:37 → HSV 12:43 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3997 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 08:20	HSV 09:26	12%	4%	1.1%	80%
AA 3568 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 19:59	HSV 21:07	17%	7%	1.3%	44%
AA 3581 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 16:47	HSV 17:57	18%	7%	1.3%	77%
AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:37	HSV 12:43	21%	8%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON