Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4557 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:56	HYA 13:36	12%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 4555 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:59	HYA 17:39	16%	4%	0.8%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hyannis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 06:59 → LGA 08:20AA 4393 · flown by Republic	3h 20m New York	LGA 11:40 → HYA 12:56AA 4565 · flown by Republic	5h 57m	100%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON