Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1450 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1450 DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 5222 DCA 19:56 → IAH 22:14 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1450 United Flight history →	DCA 06:00	IAH 08:13	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:59	IAH 15:18	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	12%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:27	14%	6%	0.8%	66%
AA 5467 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:59	IAH 10:18	14%	5%	1.0%	70%
UA 1381 United Flight history →	DCA 14:55	IAH 17:14	15%	5%	0.7%	78%
AA 5333 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:59	IAH 16:22	22%	10%	1.1%	57%
AA 5222 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:56	IAH 22:14	26%	12%	1.0%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON