Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5235 at 07:18 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5235 DCA 07:18 → ILM 08:51 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 5229 DCA 17:45 → ILM 19:21 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5235 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:18	ILM 08:51	11%	3%	1.2%	89%
AA 5237 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:59	ILM 14:32	19%	5%	1.3%	64%
AA 5229 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:45	ILM 19:21	26%	10%	1.4%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON