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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4664 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 4664 DCA 06:30 → IND 08:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 4517 DCA 17:00 → IND 19:01 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 4664 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:30 IND 08:26 5% 2% 0.7% 96%
AA 4701 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 09:40 IND 11:39 10% 2% 0.7% 88%
AA 4407 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 11:59 IND 13:56 12% 3% 0.7% 95%
AA 4452 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 14:35 IND 16:35 14% 4% 0.7% 77%
AA 4520 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 19:35 IND 21:30 16% 5% 0.8% 71%
AA 4517 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 17:00 IND 19:01 21% 5% 0.8% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON