Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1992 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1992 DCA 06:59 → JAX 09:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 5547 DCA 20:01 → JAX 22:11 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1992 American Flight history →	DCA 06:59	JAX 09:04	7%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 4340 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:58	JAX 14:09	11%	3%	0.7%	68%
AA 2816 American Flight history →	DCA 14:59	JAX 17:08	22%	7%	1.0%	68%
AA 5547 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:01	JAX 22:11	31%	10%	2.3%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON