Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5802 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 5802 DCA 06:06 → JFK 07:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 5713 DCA 17:00 → JFK 18:39 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5802 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:06	JFK 07:29	4%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 4551 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:30	JFK 07:57	4%	1%	0.9%	94%
B6 254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:21	JFK 07:30	9%	2%	1.0%	91%
DL 5624 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:00	JFK 12:17	15%	3%	0.9%	74%
AA 4781 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:54	JFK 16:29	17%	4%	1.0%	62%
AA 4474 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:58	JFK 21:30	21%	7%	1.0%	50%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:00	JFK 18:39	23%	6%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON