tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2051 American Flight history → DCA 07:59 LAS 10:09 11% 3% 0.7% 83%
WN 978 Southwest Flight history → DCA 16:25 LAS 18:30 37% 10% 0.7% 19%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DCA 06:00 → MCI 07:40WN 358 2h 05m Kansas City MCI 09:45 → LAS 10:45WN 4532 7h 45m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 31m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 00m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 2h 42m Houston IAH 10:55 → LAS 12:14UA 1799 9h 14m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 30m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 7h 12m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 14m Chicago ORD 09:00 → LAS 11:08UA 723 7h 38m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 41m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638 2h 32m Chicago ORD 11:00 → LAS 13:05UA 2440 8h 50m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → DCA 17:20 → DAL 19:30WN 1403 1h 00m Dallas DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 1128 6h 55m 63% 37%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet 58m Newark EWR 20:26 → LAS 23:05UA 1800 8h 10m 56% 34%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 08:59 → SAN 11:39AS 15 51m San Diego SAN 12:30 → LAS 13:58AS 2255 · flown by Horizon 7h 59m 63% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON