Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4393 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 4393 DCA 06:59 → LGA 08:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 5768 DCA 20:40 → LGA 21:59 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4393 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:59	LGA 08:20	7%	2%	1.1%	88%
DL 1172 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:20	LGA 07:30	9%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 4491 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LGA 11:25	16%	4%	1.1%	85%
DL 5772 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:15	LGA 09:33	17%	3%	1.1%	81%
AA 4645 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:44	LGA 13:08	20%	5%	1.1%	75%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:00	LGA 12:09	24%	5%	1.2%	75%
AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:30	LGA 23:44	25%	9%	1.6%	70%
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:05	LGA 15:39	26%	10%	1.3%	62%
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:30	LGA 14:53	28%	10%	1.3%	67%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:59	LGA 16:33	28%	10%	1.4%	64%
AA 4685 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:26	LGA 18:57	32%	12%	1.4%	55%
AA 4702 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:19	LGA 19:49	34%	15%	1.5%	51%
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:40	LGA 18:59	37%	12%	1.4%	51%
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:40	LGA 21:04	37%	18%	1.4%	48%
DL 5768 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:40	LGA 21:59	39%	15%	1.5%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON