Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3627 at 17:09, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3627 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 17:09	LIT 19:00	18%	5%	0.8%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:19 → LIT 12:49DL 1347	6h 50m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040	6h 03m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	DCA 06:10 → DAL 08:10WN 1268	1h 25m Dallas	DAL 09:35 → LIT 10:45WN 4403	5h 35m	98%	89%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:41 → LIT 11:03AA 3632 · flown by Envoy	7h 03m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	5h 56m	99%	87%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:56 → LIT 13:18AA 3636 · flown by Envoy	7h 19m	99%	86%
American Details →	DCA 06:18 → CLT 07:57AA 1581	3h 33m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → LIT 12:45AA 4146 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	98%	85%
American Details →	DCA 08:23 → ORD 10:00AA 4360 · flown by Republic	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 11:45 → LIT 13:41AA 3398 · flown by Envoy	6h 18m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	48m Charlotte	CLT 20:25 → LIT 21:38AA 3692 · flown by Envoy	4h 48m	73%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON