Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 358 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 358 DCA 06:00 → MCI 07:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 3514 DCA 20:30 → MCI 22:30 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 358 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:00	MCI 07:40	4%	1%	0.8%	91%
AA 5268 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 06:59	MCI 08:47	11%	3%	1.1%	89%
AA 5505 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:54	MCI 16:48	23%	8%	1.2%	35%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:00	MCI 21:50	26%	9%	1.3%	55%
WN 1146 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 15:00	MCI 16:40	28%	5%	0.8%	29%
WN 3514 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 20:30	MCI 22:30	32%	8%	0.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON